The iPhone's software stack probably has ~20 calendar years of cutting-edge software inside (NeXT, Objective-C, Display PS/PDF, etc.). That's an eternity.

Android represents a tremendous amount of effort and Google is earnest about improving it at breakneck speed.

WebOS's HTML5 approach is a smart shortcut to building a slick UI but can it give developers and consumers what they want? I suspect RIM will look at their calendar and make the same "the browser is the OS" decision.

I assume everyone in this race gets it but it would be great to understand how much R&D, in people and dollars, is actually being performed by the laggards.

Of course, Windows (I can talk only about it since I have it) Mobile is outdated. But at the end of the day it runs. It runs Skype. ) It runs appointments. It does nice surfing. (Thanks to Skyfire.) Actually all companies other than MS are making good improvements to the platform. May be this will be a key differentiator – price.

"Is Nokia 6120 a smartphone competing with iPhone, "

Yes it is. Maybe it is not as powerful as eg. N95 or N97 etc, but it is as much smartphone as those others mentioned. It has similar hardware features: gps, camera, etc. and more importantly it can run Symbian apps like any higher end smartphone. Same applies for many mid-tier Nokia phones running Symbian. Sure eg. Nokia 6120 is not as high end ans N- and E-series phones, nut it is a smartphone.

Of course this can change rapidly due to multiple factors (attractivity: installed base, ease of use of development, making money; but also fashionability), but takes a lot of effort and, more important, creativity that enlightens their audience…

1) OEM device wins… well look at the broader "horizontal" OSes. Android clearly has the momentum here. Will they learn how to play nice with their customers and make it easier to take product to market? We'll see. Lots of hype and a healthy pipeline… but few phones thus far

2) Operator support. Symbian and WinMo clearly are far ahead of everyone else, but this is primarily due to their longevity in the market. If Android is succesful with their business model (different than EVERYONE else in that that rev share the app revenue with the operators, rather than keep it themselves), look out. So far, only T-Mo jumping in with both feet. I expect other Tier 1s to join the party soon.

3) Size of dev community. Symbian, WinMo large base. iPhone growing quickly. WebOS comes at this from a different approach and I personally think they're onto something here… HTML5, CSS, SMIL, JS, off-line caching, et cetera give them a potentially HUGE pool of developers in the waiting. We'll see if they can get them to jump in

4) Momentum of the developer community. One clear winner here. Apple. Android coming on strong with over 6K apps without a lot of devices… they have the volume promise, the market, the tools, documentation is getting better, good return on time (easy dev model), the panache of Google brand (cool, sexy allure), and a $10M investment pool. I fully expect they to reach 10K apps by EoY. Watch what happens next year if 20 devices really hit the market in the next 6 months.

5) End-user experience. Already discussed at length. Apple is CLEARLY the gold standard. Will be interesting to see what Donut and Eclair can bring to the table. WebOS is in many ways better than iPhone… how would the game change if Palm licensed WebOS? I know nothing, but I bet they will soon. It's simply too good to not give it a go (for the second time .

6) Business model. Open source v. proprietary. vertically integrated v. horizontal. pay for support v. pay for sw license. picking the right open sources licenses, revenue sharing, completeness of the stack, customization options (can the OEM/operator differentiate)… not enough time to adequately discuss here. Leave it to say, I think Android is onto something.

7) Investment model. Can the OS company sustain the necessary R&D to keep up with the Jones? If they are open source, what kind of contributions are they getting from the developer community? What is the development cost per unit? Can the OS scale into adjacent market (like Netbooks, IVI, or CE devices) to reduce the R&D burden? Again… I think Android is onto something here.

My .02,

Tobias

BTW, look at what RIM has done over the past 6 months.. license Google Gears, buy a webkit based browser company, reached an agreement with MS for Sliverlight support, and cemented the agreement with Adobe for FULL Flash… Kinda looks like RIM is moving quickly to shore up their deficiencies. AND, they are the correct moves IMO. Good on' em for recogizing and reacting.

My humble prediction is that we will see more data than voice and that should change a lot.

I believe the great work around David W. and his team will pay out if persistent. All players are taking positions and as Android, Apple, Microsoft, RIM, Palm and many others do, I think there is plenty of room for more fragmentation in this gigantic space. One seize wont fit here at all, it is too competitive.

The only reason for omitting WebOS is the length of this post. I used to be longtime Palm user (my Treo 650 still gets a charge once in a while).

Palm did excellent job in designing smartphone device with modern software platform. However, it is difficult to see how WebOS can escape the role of a niche player. Palm cannot expect to replicate iPhone success (Pre is not a game changer), and it will not have the scale of Android achieved by its open model.

Being a standalone device play, WebOS does not have a leading "killer application" like other smartphones: iPhone is all about entertainment; Android is strongly linked to Google services; Blackberry is an icon for corporate mobile email; Windows Mobile promises Outlook, Office and Windows Live on-the-go; Nokia is first and foremost about having a solid mobile phone.

If only Palm was a Canadian company…. Just a wild thought…. ;^)

Yes, the needs of core telephony are usually overlooked being one of many things, which are taken for granted.

Knowing the internals, successful integration of telephony is very non-trivial task. This for example was one of the big weaknesses of Windows Mobile.

Apple made their life easier by not allowing background applications on the iPhone.

Android still needs to prove robustness of its telephony framework, which is just one of the services running on the device. Good news that many handset manufacturers working with Android understand these issues and are able to fine-tune this open source platform.

Any reason for not including webOS together with iPhone & Android?