[In our third annual Mobile Megatrends 2010 research we look at the future of web platforms, app stores, revenue models, open source, mobile recommendations, OEM monetisation, and operator strategies]

After many months in the making, we ‘ve released our annual Mobile Megatrends 2010. It’s our third and biggest Megatrends research we ‘ve published to date featuring 64 juicy slides with detailed analysis on the future of mobile.

So what are the overarching trends of mobile in 2010? We ‘ve covered 8 core themes:

1. Vertical integration: one way street or quick detour? We present a novel way of studying the evolution of the mobile industry, from 1985 to 2010+ and the trend-setting milestones for handset OEMs and network operators. We use this tool to demonstrate how handset OEMs have evolved twice as fast as network operators and how vertical integration (as practiced by Apple, RIM, Nokia et al) is a 20-year cyclic trend, not a panacea.

2. The evolution of revenue models. We re-introduce Value Quadrants, our novel tool for mapping the evolution of revenue models, and present how revenue flows are changing in 2010 and beyond. Here we discuss upstream monetisation, productisation of systemware and completely new revenue models that are emerging such as per inventory, per reach and per activation.

3. App Stores: the long-tail future. We compare the top-5 App Stores across their key figures (installed base, downloads, applications, revenues and revenue share). More importantly, we go behind the scenes to uncover the five key ingredients of the app store recipe, and why a succesful recipe must fuse ingredients from very opposite ends of the value chain. We also review the evolution of app stores throughout 2000-2012 and place predictions on five key tenets that will determine the future of app stores; abundance, diversity, co-existence, low barriers and the dominance of retailing.

4. Web platforms: why the future of software development is still elusive. In this trend we review the evolution of the mobile web, from WAP to widgets and WebKit. We compare and contrast 3rd parties (developers) vs 2nd parties (handset OEMs and their partners) to demonstrate how the need and 2nd and 3rd parties are diametrically opposite. We then show how web platforms address very few OEM needs and therefore why the web is simply a means to an end to attracting developers, but little else.

5. In Open is the New Closed: how companies are using open source to further own agendas we update our seminal research on licenses vs governance models. We then poke under Symbian Foundation, Google Android and LiMo Foundation to show how each of these initiatives is using open source as part of a capitalist governance, rather than a socialist one that the open source moniker implies.

6. Recommendations everywhere: raising the bar for mobile services offers a state-of-the-market update on one of the most underhyped sectors in mobile: recommendation (a.k.a personalisation) solutions. The analysis goes into the many types of recommendation solutions, key suppliers for each and reviews 8 key vendors in recommendation technology: Xiam, Changing Worlds, Ericsson, Loomia, Pontis, July Systems, Olista and Choice Stream. The trend analysis concludes with an outlook on recommendation systems, including the next challenges in academic research and commercial evolution, and why we expect M&As to ensue in this sector.

7. In OEM Monetisation: products, services or distribution we present a ‘reverse engineering’ of the mobile value stack to uncover where are the remaining unique assets handset OEMs can tap into. We then present two promising strategies for OEM monetisation; inventory distribution and integrated device+UI design.

8. In the final trend Operator futures: bit-pipes or supermarkets? we discuss 7 strategies with which operators can change course away from a bit-pipe future. Based on a top-down analysis of the remaining ‘value pockets’ in the mobile value stack we present our theses on unique brand deliverables, matchmaking between consumers+brands, customer and service analytics, reach-beyond-VISA, in-the-hands experience, idle-screen monetisation and other smart-pipe strategies.

We ‘ve already presented earlier versions of our Mobile Megatrends as part of closed customer events and conferences, including as part of Rutberg’s invitation-only Wireless Influencers event in San Diego. The next presentation of the Mobile Megatrends 2010 is taking place in early February in Lund, Sweden courtesy of Cybercom. To request a on-site presentation of Mobile Megatrends please contact us.

Comments welcome as always,

- Andreas
follow me twitter: @andreascon