Distilling market noise into market sense

The VisionMobile blog is a space where VisionMobile analysts and industry insiders exchange views on the fast-changing mobile market and the trends that define the future direction of telecoms.

Gabriel

Very good report. Makes me have a better view of all.

 
04Nov
vamsi

Amazing that Operator's role is lumped into "Other" category for the go to market segment.

What a seachange in the mkt place in just 3 years.

@Vsistla

 
04Nov
Ankur Jalota

1. Given that Android and Java ME use Java, what other factors contribute to the lower learning curve being lower for Android?

2. Where is BREW (or why was it not included)?

 
04Nov
Ajuy

Brew is not major market for apps in indonesia, but we build another business module here "check out <a href="http://www.falcon.co.id” target=”_blank”>www.falcon.co.id ".

I think the android has been growing quite rapidly. Both now and for years to come.

 
05Nov
Murat Kısaküre

We can conlude that Android require less time than others.

But if you want to check out http://developer.smartface.biz theres is cross platform called Smartface Designer. Time to become master is less than one month. In addition to these it supports a lot of platforms like ( Java, BB, Symbian,..)

 
05Nov
Andreas Constantinou

@Gabriel – thanks for the kind words

@vamsi – in the actual report there's more detail about operators as a go-to-market channel. If you see the average time to market reported for operator channels compared to app stores (2x slower for operator portal placement and 4x slower for on-device preloading via operators) it hints at the reasons behind the problem.

@Ankur: Android's fast learning curve is about more than the programmatic syntax of Java; it's also about app communication constructs like Intents, skinnable/extensible UI, better emulator, etc. Android is really a clean slate approach to mobile development.

BTW, BREW was not included in our list of platforms – we plan to include it in the next (2011) research

@Ajuy, @Murat, thanks for the additional comments.

 
05Nov
jek m

apple?i dont like it

 
07Nov
Aissen

How can 24% of Application Go-to-market be other than App Store on iPhone, when it's impossible to install an app otherwise. (except if the developer sign it specifically for *your* device or if you jailbreak it…).

Something's not right with this statistic… How was it measured?

 
10Nov
Matos Kapetanakis

@Aissen:

Let me start by saying that all the data in the infographic express the views of the respondents to our research, in this case iPhone developers. The next biggest channel to market for iPhone developers was commissioned apps at 11%. and the question was "In general, what's your main channel for selling your apps?".

As for what exactly this indicates, our view is that It's mainly to do with marketing and not the market delivery per se. Developer who distribute apps via their website or commissioned by a client use a different marketing approach than those whose primary concern is discoverability in Apple's app store.

 
12Nov
Aissen

@Matos:

Thanks for the clarification, the difference in marketing approach makes sense.

 
12Nov
Iftikhar

Good report, very helpful to understanding of the value chain.

I am looking for information on the size of mobile app developer communities in different countries (in particular US, UK, India and Russia) and the number of apps created by each.

I would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction.

thanks, Iftikhar

 
13Nov
Walt French

Your survey that emphasizes java-focused developers leads to some bizarre implications about "mobile development."

1.4 billion Flash-capable mobiles? Unpossible, if you're talking about full Flash: Android is now on about 19% of smartphones and Froyo is 39% of those, so the other 1.39 billion can run Flash Lite at best. That's a major market in 2010? Who is writing for that?

3 billion java-capable mobiles? If the implication is that the mobile app market is 50X bigger than the iPhone's, you are posturing yourself as utterly inept at interpreting information.

Your readership might actually enjoy seeing the marginal income from a new app on any of these platforms, which they could compare to the development cost. That'd factor in the huge ratio of apps actually purchased or run with ads on the modern platforms of Android and Apple, versus all the others shown. If you can't come up with a "typical small developer app" revenue by platform, why not take the average? How many billions of dollars are developers earning with their Flash apps?

 
17Nov
Stoli89

Why have you not focused on the Qt development framework instead of Symbian? My understanding is that Nokia strongly encourages Qt over the heavy C++ Symbian programming for the very reasons highlighted in this "outdated" report. Just curious why you avoided such an obvious and significant element to the developer's decision making process.

 
19Nov
Dan Leinir Turthra J

Now, i was going to write something about the outdatedness of the Symbian information in this infographic, but i see i am already late, so i'll just go "Yeah, what Stoli89 said" ;)

 
23Nov
Matos Kapetanakis

@Stoli89 (and @Dan)

Well, the simple answer to why we didn't use Qt instead of Symbian is because the infographic is based on a research published on July and planned in Q1, when Symbian was not in the hard spot it is now. Moreover, showcasing Symbian's advantages and disadvantages was one of our research objectives – lots of developers have worked on Symbian in the past and will continue working on the platform in the immediate future and the whole point of Developer Economics is tracking the developer experience.

Since we're looking to increase the scope and depth of our developer research, we'll be increasing the number of platforms we'll be investigating in our upcoming Developer Economics 2011 research, incl. BREW, Qt, bada and more, so we'll be covering the points you've sugested.

@Walt

I think your objections rest mainly in the use of the expression "installed base". Looking back, we should have expressed it as "cumulative sales numbers".

So, we've got cumulative sales of 1.4B for Flash/Flash Lite (as reported by Adobe) and approx. 3B for Java <a href="http://(http://blogs.oracle.com/javaone/2010/09/going_beyond_smart-phones_with_oracles_terrence_barr.html)” target=”_blank”>(http://blogs.oracle.com/javaone/2010/09/going_beyond_smart-phones_with_oracles_terrence_barr.html). The number of active phones using these two products (or installed base, as the term should be used) is obviously smaller.

We estimate (hopefully not ineptly!!) that Flash Lite was embedded in approx. 15% of devices sold in the first half of 2010, making Flash quite pervasive. However, you should take into account not just Adobe's strategic alliance with Google against Apple, but also the migration of developer mindshare away from the platform (read the full report for more info).

Re typical app incomes – simply put, there's no such thing. Apart from the vast differences in development cost across platforms, market delivery, and by extension platform choice, is critical to monetisation. It also depends just what kind of app you're building and how are you monetising it (commissioned by customer, pay to download, free, ads, etc). That's why we chose to investigate revenue targets rather than income.

 
23Nov
Norik Davtian

Very insightful data visualization. It's amazing how there is not relation between installation base and available apps. and I assume this will hold true for next few years as well.

 
20Jan
Pramod Gaur

Firstly, Thanx for sharing this valuable information with the Developer community.
As a Mobile App Developer, My current challenge is, with the introduction of various platforms (OS) in the Mobility Market, Is there any way to convert a JAVA code to a compatible ANDRIOD / BLACKBERRY / BADA supported code…..? OR we have to re-write the entire code once again…?

 
03Mar
rahi

antivirus
I could tell that we’re on the same interest and obsession. Good to know someone I could share my ideas. Looking forward to know and learn some more from you. I’ll be glad to share my own thoughts to you soon. Thank you for sharing such valuable articles. More power!

 
02Jul
mediahuset123

Usually, they choose their own role model. Don’t have to be famous, just ordinary people maybe that do a big thing in their life and affected our life too.Thank you for the work you have put into this post.
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02Jul
mediahuset123

Another great set, I appreciate all the work you put into this site, helping out others with your fun and creative works.
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04Jul
allenjanda

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Your work is very good and I appreciate you and hopping for some more informative posts. thank you for sharing great information to us

 
07Jul
johnsonj9211

An invaluable resource and great addition to my favorites. The new features are well received on this end and will surely help the community share and progress more rapidly.
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13Jul
Bibhas C Debnath

Informative no doubt. Is there any updated version of it? With Latest data?

 
05Nov
reggy

So how much is earning the developer in all of this, i know the distributor earn a lot like apple, but what about the developer?

 
06Nov
VisionMobile

@Bibhas – Developer Economics 2011 <a href="http:// (www.DeveloperEconomics.com)” target=”_blank”> <a href="http://(www.DeveloperEconomics.com)” target=”_blank”>(www.DeveloperEconomics.com) has newer data – was published in June 2011. We also have an infographic for DevEcon11 – http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2011/07/infograp

@reggy – depends on a number of factors, such as platform, app store chosen etc.

 
07Nov
Marco Elling

is there any updated version available? with latest data?

 
29Feb
VisionMobile

@Marco – there's also an infographic based on our Developer Economics 2011 research here http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2011/07/infograp

We're about to kick-off our next Developer Economics 2012 research – due end of Q2 – so stay tuned!

 
29Feb

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